June 23, 2026 · 10:25 AM
Obi-Wan Starfighter leads Jun 23 — cooldown lifted, tightest forecast band in pool
LEGO 75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter takes the Jun 23 lead at $22.68 (−24.4% vs. $29.99 MSRP) with the tightest 2-year forecast band in the tracked pool (10.67pp) and the highest liquidity at 1,568 recorded sales. Optimus Prime (10302) enters as co-lead on a $1.68 material price drop. Huracán Tecnica (42161) is 89 days stale with 3 days left before BrickRanker's 90-day delisting threshold on Jun 26.
Two cooldowns expire today. 75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter takes the lead: $22.68 (−24.4% vs. $29.99 MSRP), a 10.67pp forecast band — the tightest of any set tracked — and 1,568 recorded sales, by far the deepest liquidity in the pool. 10302 Optimus Prime enters as co-lead after a $1.68 overnight price drop to $137.96, the only material price move in a 16th consecutive ultra-stable session. On the sideboard, 42161 Huracán Tecnica is now 89 days stale — three days from BrickRanker's 90-day delisting threshold on Jun 26. 1
Quick-scan table
All prices USD. BR avg = BrickRanker 6-month rolling average sold price. Forecast = 2-year post-retirement appreciation midpoint. Data age as of Jun 23.
| Rank | Set | Theme | MSRP | BR avg | vs. MSRP | Forecast mid | Band | Sales | Data age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Lead | 75333 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter | Star Wars | $29.99 | $22.68 | −24.4% | +18.07% | 10.67pp ✅ | 1,568 | Jun 2026 ✅ |
| Co-lead | 10302 Optimus Prime | Icons | $179.99 | $137.96 | −23.3% | +25.92% | 12.43pp | 279 | May 2026 (~32d ⚠️) |
| #3 | 75405 Home One Starcruiser | Star Wars | $69.99 | $47.11 | −32.7% | +20.57% | 18.14pp | 76 | Jun 2026 ✅ |
| #4 | 75404 Acclamator Assault Ship | Star Wars | $49.99 | $36.22 | −27.6% | +21.20% | 19.16pp | 101 | Jun 2026 ✅ |
| #5 | 75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor | Star Wars | $44.99 | $33.98 | −24.5% | +14.13% | 20.35pp | 164 | Jun 2026 ✅ |
| #6 | 10338 Bumblebee | Icons | $89.99 | $65.97 | −26.7% | +23.57% | 25.39pp | 65 | May 2026 (~32d ⚠️) |
| #7 | 10359 Fountain Garden | Icons | $99.99 | $67.71 | −32.3% | +29.04% | 32.06pp ⚠️ | 26 | Apr 2026 (58d ⚠️) |
| 🚨 Sideboard | 42161 Huracán Tecnica | Technic | $49.99 | $37.70 | −24.6% | +38.89% | 22.82pp | 23 | Mar 2026 (89d stale 🚨) |
#1 — 75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter
Set 75333-1 | LEGO Star Wars | 282 pieces | 3 minifigures (all exclusive) | MSRP $29.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
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75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter 1
The case for 75333 as today's lead comes down to one figure: 10.67 percentage points. That's the forecast band — the gap between BrickRanker's low and high 2-year appreciation estimates — and it's the tightest in the entire tracked pool. A narrower band means the model has more recorded sales to work with and less variance in where it thinks the price goes. 1
The sales data backs that. At 1,568 total recorded sales, this set has more secondary market transaction history than every other set in today's pool combined. June 2026 alone logged 12 sales at an average of $31.52 — meaning some buyers are currently clearing this set above MSRP on the secondary market, even as the 6-month rolling average sits at $22.68. The $22.68 figure is the price anchor for buy-low-hold scenarios; the $31.52 June average is the indication of where near-term resale sits. 1
Three minifigures are exclusive to this set: Taun We ($7.28), Obi-Wan Kenobi in Episode II clone wars attire ($5.30), and R4-P17 ($3.97). Combined, they represent $16.55 — or 73% of the $22.68 market price. For buyers who need any of these three figures, the set trades at a premium over parts-out value, which creates a floor even in a down market. 1
Retirement is estimated Jul 31, 2026 — 38 days out. The cooldown put in place after a prior feature expired today (Jun 23).
Authentication notes
At $22.68, this set sits below the price point where sophisticated counterfeiters usually operate, but knock-off Jedi Starfighter shells have appeared on Mercari and Depop at near-retail asking prices:
- Minifigure face printing: Taun We is the primary counterfeit tell — authentic printing has fine teal-grey skin gradients and clean black eye dots. Blurred edges or solid color fills indicate a fake.
- Red canopy hinge: the R-type red canopy uses a specific short LEGO hinge plate. Counterfeits often substitute a standard plate that makes the canopy sit slightly higher than flush.
- Sticker condition on used listings: this set uses a dedicated pre-cut sticker sheet for wing markings. Any "open/incomplete" listing with missing wing decals but an otherwise complete model warrants verification before purchase.
- Bag count: authentic 75333 ships with two numbered bags. Any sealed listing showing a single unlabelled bag is a counterfeit signal.
Co-lead — 10302 Optimus Prime
Set 10302-1 | LEGO Icons | 1,508 pieces | 0 minifigures | MSRP $179.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
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The $1.68 price drop — from $139.64 to $137.96 — is the only move in today's session that clears the $0.25 materiality threshold. It pushed the discount from −22.4% to −23.3% against the $179.99 MSRP, and it's the signal that brought this set back to co-lead eligibility after its cooldown expired today. 2
The 2-year forecast is +25.92% mid, band running from +19.94% to +32.37% — a 12.43pp spread. Both the floor (+19.94%) and the ceiling (+32.37%) are positive, which is not true of all sets in today's pool. 2
One caveat to carry: this data is ~32 days stale, last recorded May 26. BrickRanker logged 5 sales in May at an average captured in that update; no June transaction data is available yet. At $179.99 MSRP and 1,508 pieces, this is the highest-priced and largest set in today's eligible pool. Price-per-brick comes to $0.092 — good value for a licensed Icons-tier build of this scale. The set builds in two configurations (robot mode and truck mode), and at 1,508 pieces both displays are substantial. 2
Authentication notes
Licensed Transformers sets at this price tier attract more sophisticated fakes than the average retiring LEGO set:
- Truck cab geometry: authentic 10302 has precisely beveled door panels and a specific grille construction. Fakes often use simpler single-plate grilles that look flat in listing photos.
- Chest plate print: Optimus Prime's iconic chest print on the torso section is a single-piece printed tile (not sticker). Any listing showing a sticker in this position is not authentic.
- Weight check for sealed copies: at 1,508 pieces, authentic sealed boxes weigh approximately 1.4 kg. Listings claiming sealed that feel light or rattle with unusual bag movement deserve extra scrutiny.
- Box typography: LEGO and Transformers brand logos must be crisp and correctly spaced. The "18+" age indicator on authentic copies appears in a specific bottom-left position with Futura-style font.
Other eligible entries
75405 Home One Starcruiser — deepest eligible discount at −32.7%
Set 75405-1 | LEGO Star Wars | 559 pieces | 0 minifigures | MSRP $69.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
BR average: $47.11 (−32.7% vs. $69.99 MSRP), fresh Jun 2026 data including one June sale at $54.28. Forecast: +20.57% mid (band 13.71%–31.85%, 18.14pp). No minifigures; this is a model-only display piece built around the Mon Calamari cruiser from Return of the Jedi. The $32.7% discount is the strongest among today's fully eligible entries. 3
75404 Acclamator-class Assault Ship — new forecast data, +21.20%
Set 75404-1 | LEGO Star Wars | 450 pieces | 0 minifigures | MSRP $49.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
BR average: $36.22 (−27.6% vs. $49.99 MSRP), Jun 2026 data. Forecast: +21.20% mid (band 10.81%–29.97%, 19.16pp). This forecast was absent in the Jun 22 checkpoint — it appears for the first time today, giving 75404 a complete data profile after several weeks without appreciation projections. 4
75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor — new forecast data, Anakin exclusive
Set 75401-1 | LEGO Star Wars | 290 pieces | 3 minifigures (2 exclusive) | MSRP $44.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
BR average: $33.98 (−24.5% vs. $44.99 MSRP), Jun 2026 data. Forecast: +14.13% mid (band 2.39%–22.74%, 20.35pp) — also newly available today after being absent Jun 22. The two exclusive minifigures (Anakin Skywalker $9.92 and Ahsoka Tano in Padawan attire $9.59), combined with R7-A7 ($5.52), put minifigure value at $24.03 — 71% of the $33.98 market price. 5
10338 Bumblebee — 32 days stale, treat as directional only
Set 10338-1 | LEGO Icons | 950 pieces | 0 minifigures | MSRP $89.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
BR average: $65.97 (−26.7% vs. $89.99 MSRP), data from May 26 (~32 days stale). Forecast: +23.57% mid (band 6.98%–32.37%, 25.39pp). The data gap means $65.97 is directional, not a live quote. 6
10359 Fountain Garden — 58 days stale, widest band
Set 10359-1 | LEGO Icons | 1,302 pieces | 0 minifigures | MSRP $99.99 | Estimated retirement Jul 31, 2026
BR average: $67.71 (−32.3% vs. $99.99 MSRP), data from Apr 26 — 58 days stale. Forecast: +29.04% mid (band 9.61%–41.67%, 32.06pp — widest in today's pool). At 26 total lifetime sales, the data foundation is thin. Use this figure for directional context only. 7
Discount vs. MSRP comparison
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Jun 23 discount comparison, eligible sets only (cooldown sets excluded). Fountain Garden (58d stale) and Bumblebee (~32d stale) marked with single asterisk. Huracán Tecnica (89d stale, delisting risk Jun 26) marked with double asterisk — do not use as actionable price. Sources: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sideboard: stale data
🚨 42161 Lamborghini Huracán Tecnica — 3 days to delisting threshold
BrickRanker's last recorded sale for 42161 was March 26, 2026 — the data is now 89 days stale as of Jun 23. The 90-day no-activity threshold triggers Jun 26, three days from today. If no new marketplace sale is recorded and processed before Jun 26, BrickRanker is likely to delist this set from active rankings. 8
The figures on file — $37.70 (−24.6% vs. $49.99 MSRP), 806 pieces, Technic, +38.89% forecast mid (band 26.24%–49.06%, 22.82pp) — are three months old, derived from 23 total lifetime sales. The last two recorded transactions both came in at $42.05 on Mar 26. Do not treat $37.70 as a current price. 8
The +38.89% mid is the second-highest forecast in the entire cohort (behind only the Audi RS Q e-tron's +42.92%, which is on cooldown until Jun 29). But a stale forecast anchored to 23 sales carries wider uncertainty than the number suggests. The 22.82pp band captures some of that — the floor at +26.24% still implies meaningful appreciation, but the data quality is too degraded to act on. If BrickRanker refreshes before Jun 26 with a new recorded sale, the set would immediately become a top lead candidate. If it delists, this radar loses its BR data source for 42161 entirely. 8 9
Session notes
16th consecutive ultra-stable session. Every tracked set moved less than $0.32 today — 10 of 11 non-stale sets moved less than $0.05. The only material move was Optimus Prime's $1.68 drop. No pre-retirement scarcity premium has appeared for any Jul 31 set across six weeks of daily tracking. 2
Retirement tracker: 110 sets, 39 themes (−1 from Jun 22). The Wicked theme has been removed from BrickRanker's retirement tracker between Jun 22 and Jun 23. Sets 75682 (Elphaba & Glinda Figures), 75683 (Glinda & Elphaba's Dormitory), and 75684 (Welcome to Emerald City) no longer appear in the retiring-soon list. The total set count holds at 110; the theme count dropped from 40 to 39. The reason is not confirmed — possibilities include a LEGO production extension, a revised retirement date, or a BrickRanker data correction. All 11 sets tracked by this radar retain their Jul 31, 2026 tags. 9
New forecast data for two Star Wars sets. 75404 Acclamator-class Assault Ship (+21.20% mid) and 75401 Ahsoka's Jedi Interceptor (+14.13% mid) now have 2-year post-retirement forecasts on BrickRanker — both were absent in the Jun 22 checkpoint. Both sets carry fresh Jun 2026 price data and are eligible with no cooldowns active. 4 5
Cooldown calendar. Active cooldowns: 42143 Ferrari Daytona SP3 expires Jun 29; 42160 Audi RS Q e-tron expires Jun 29; 31208 Hokusai Great Wave expires Jun 28; 75325 N-1 Starfighter expires Jun 28; 10327 Dune Ornithopter expires Jun 25; 42151 Bugatti Bolide expires Jun 25; 21058 Great Pyramid expires Jun 25; 75347 TIE Bomber expires Jun 24; 76328 Batmobile expires Jun 26; 31213 Mona Lisa expires Jun 26. Note: TIE Bomber and Bugatti Bolide still have no BrickRanker 2-year forecast or piece count data — a persistent data gap for both sets. 9
Price data: BrickRanker 6-month rolling averages fetched Jun 23, 2026 (window ending ~11:00 ET). All figures USD. Retirement dates are BrickRanker estimates and subject to change. 10302 Optimus Prime and 10338 Bumblebee data are May 2026 (~32 days stale) — treat as directional. 10359 Fountain Garden data is Apr 26 (58 days stale) — do not use as a live quote. 42161 Huracán Tecnica data is Mar 26 (89 days stale), delisting threshold Jun 26 — not an actionable price. Verify all listings independently before purchasing.
Cover image: LEGO 75333 Obi-Wan Kenobi's Jedi Starfighter product image via BrickRanker
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